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American Idol is on Millions of Peoples Minds, Lips and topics of many water-cooler conversations. Looking around the internet for American Idol Predictions and Commentary, I came accross a very nice and reliable story..

We’re down to six, but this season is still too close to call. It’s the first season where no one really stands out as a potential winner at this point, and every week, it seems someone new emerges as a potential frontrunner. I know who I want to win, but I am really not sure who will actually end up in the finals. I’m not even comfortable predicting who will be in the top three, and that’s never happened before.

The only thing I can think of to do this week is to offer my impressions of each of the top six. Perhaps in writing this, I will gain some clarity! It’s worth a try, I suppose. To avoid any confusion or accusations of favoritism, I am listing them in alphabetical order by first name. We certainly don’t need last names anymore, now, do we!

Chris Daughtry
I was very impressed by Chris’ initial audition and figured he was a sure thing for the top 12. I did my research and found his band’s website and had a chance to listen to some of his pre-Idol material. While this music isn’t particularly my favorite, I certainly recognized his talent and power. He seemed to sail through the early rounds, generating lots of positive press and great responses from the judges. I figured he was a lock for the top three at least and could certainly go on to the finals. I wasn’t sure if he could win it, but would have predicted that he would at least have a shot.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the finals. All of a sudden, the judges – Simon especially – have seemed to have a change of heart. As I wrote last week, for weeks, Chris could do no wrong and was praised for his originality and refusal to compromise. Then, suddenly, Simon snapped and Chris was no longer the golden child. Last week, Chris was astounding with his interpretation of “What a Wonderful World,” and once again earned praises from the judges.

But there’s a slight problem here. Chris had no choice as to how he would sing this song. The contestants were told in advance that they were to sing the songs as they were written. His voice was incredible, and I was moved by his performance. But I never forgot for a moment that this is not the Chris who will be recording the Idol single should he win, nor is it the Chris Daughtry who will eventually release an album, win or lose. And that’s what bothers me.

I agree that he has a great rock voice, and the stamina and edge necessary to be a successful rock star. But despite Bo Bice’s success on the show, Idol has never been nor will it ever be about finding the next great rock star. It’s about pop music, and that’s the kind of music that interests the average viewer. If you like rock music and still dig the show, then you are not the average viewer. And if you think for a minute that Chris will be allowed to do the kind of music with which he most comfortable, think again. Bo tried and failed to make his debut album truly his own, and there’s no reason to think that Chris would be any more successful.

If Chris can gain fans from eliminated contestants (Ace for one), then it is possible that he could make it to the finals. But the competition is tougher than ever. Chris was in the bottom three last week, which isn’t necessarily the kiss of death, but could indicate that his popularity is waning. I won’t be surprised no matter which way this one goes, and I think that Chris will find work no matter how this shakes out.

Elliott Yamin
Early in March, Sting7 wrote an article predicting that Elliott would be the winner of American Idol 5. I chortled, thought about it for a minute, and then sent him the following email:

Ohhhhhhh Sting, I don’t know! Man… Elliott? I just did that little sucking of the teeth thing that Randy does when he’s just not buying something. I don’t know! I am so torn, I just don’t know. But who will win? I am shaking my head. You could be right, though. This season is a stumper for me. The thing is, you are NEVER wrong, and that’s what scares me!!!

Even though I have really grown to love Elliott Yamin , I still feel that way. Although Elliott has been very smart about his song choices and has not had a bad performance yet, I don’t think he’s strong enough to counter the tidal wave of support that some of the other contestants seem to have going in their favor. This, of course, is a roundabout way of saying that this year, we seem to be in the midst of what is turning into an old-fashioned popularity contest. Too bad for Elliott, and too bad for us if the outcome is dependant on one contestant’s popularity.

I am afraid that Elliott has been too understated and flown too far below the radar, and for that reason, this week may be his last no matter how well he does. I could be wrong, and I really hope that I am, but this is how I see it. The odds aren’t good. Think about it. To win, he would have to amass enough support to knock out some pretty powerful contenders. I just don’t think he can do it.

Katharine McPhee
Just in case anyone had forgotten, last week Katharine reminded us all that she is still in this to win it. Her performance was just the right combination of excellent vocals and genuine emotion, and it didn’t hurt that she looked amazing. Seeing her father with tears in his eyes as he watched his little girl took my breath away. She was spectacular.

I have been impressed with Katharine McPhee from the start, but strangely, some of her performances have bored me. Her vocals are always superb, but she doesn’t always connect with the audience. The thing about Katharine is that when she gets it right, she is outstanding.

I like her attitude and have a feeling she is pretty laidback and “normal.” She’s no stranger to the spotlight, but hasn’t developed a diva attitude despite the accolades that have been given to her. Early on, Simon told her that she reminded him of Kelly Clarkson, and there are some similarities between the two. They are both naturally gifted vocalists and have a silly kind of goofiness that is very appealing. But unlike Kelly, Katharine is a very polished performer and has already blossomed. What was neat about Kelly was that she wasn’t aware of how good she was, and we were able to watch as she grew into a star right before our very eyes! Katharine is already there.

Katharine certainly has everything she needs to get to the finals, but she is not a lock, not by a long shot. In order to make it to the top, she is going to have to do what she did last week every week, and that’s not going to be easy. I think she will positively shine this week. There’s no way that she can fail with this particular genre! She should make the top four, but after that, who knows? She has the talent, and certainly looks like an Idol, but does she have enough fans to carry her to the top? That’s what it’s going to take for Katharine McPhee to be the next American Idol.

Kellie Pickler
What can I say about Kellie that hasn’t already been said? Is she really as ditzy as she seems? Can she sing anything without a twang, or should she even try? What is it about Kellie Pickler that is keeping her in the competition? Sure, she has a decent voice, and yes, she is cute, but come on now, she’s completely out of her league considering the level of talent of the other five remaining contestants.

I don’t dislike Kellie personally. I actually believe that she is pretty much being herself despite accusations that her “country ways” are just an act. She’s a good old gal from the country who has found herself in an alien land that continues to boggle her not-too-terribly-bright mind. And that would be fine if her vocals were consistently good and her song choices sensibly. But they’re not.

Her performance last week was not good. She rushed the words (after being rehearsed by Rod to really space them out) and was so far ahead of the music that it was like watching a badly dubbed movie. When I watch the show by myself, which I did this week, I normally don’t speak out loud, but I couldn’t help myself. I kept saying to the television, “Slow down, Kellie,” and when she didn’t, I was shaking my head in amazement, saying, “This is really bad.” I was impressed that she admitted to “botching” the song, and that certainly saved her with Simon, but still. She was without question the worst of the week.

If this had been her first dud, I could understand why she escaped elimination, but it was not. She’s getting votes based on the fact that people like her, and is fast becoming the Nikki McKibbon of season 5; at least that’s how I see it. Up until this week, though, I hadn’t really been concerned about Kellie. Yeah, I was aggravated that she stayed and Mandisa went home, but this type of thing happens every year. This week, it seems, I sort of woke up and realized that we are down to six, and Kellie is still around.

Last year, Scott Savol was the Nikki and ended up in fifth place. Think about it. If this happens again, Kellie will definitely outlast Elliott and could bump someone like Paris or even Katharine. That would be a travesty. Simon is predicting that she will make the top three. I don’t even want to think about that. I’ll be livid!

I don’t think Kellie will win; at least I hope not. We’ve already had a country Idol, and Carrie is so much better than Kellie that there would be no competition. The country world is no walk in the park. Other than Buddy Jewell, Nashville Star winners have not been successful, and it is to Carrie’s credit that she has been so successful in this very competitive genre. She’s good. Kellie is not in the same league with Carrie and her winning will not be a good thing for the show. Period. And that’s all I am going to say about that!

Paris Bennett
I loved Paris’ initial audition and knew that she would go deep into the competition. That she has outlasted Mandisa (and Lisa) is to her credit, and I think she deserves to go even farther. She has an incredible voice and gets so into each song that it is hard to believe that she is so young. I love the way she changes her look to match each theme, and I don’t think she’s had one bad performance. “Fever” was brilliant and I thought she was great last week as well. I love her enthusiasm and the way she works the stage. Her dancing is fun to watch, and she’s just so cute I could hug her.

I think Paris should go to the top three, and would love to see her in the finals. She deserves to be there. Her main competition for the top three will be Katharine, and given the right theme and song choice, I think she can do it. My only concern is Kellie. If Kellie does not get knocked out this week or next, I am afraid that Paris is not going to make it. This will be a real shame.

It’s happened before. Remember season 3? LaToya London had the poise, the vocals, and hit it right every week. She was the only contestant who could have given Fantasia a run for her money, but she didn’t have the support necessary to counter the massive amount of votes that Jasmine Trias received from supporters in Hawaii. LaToya came in fourth, leaving us with a lopsided top three and a finale that was almost boringly predictable. This could happen again.

Paris has been in the bottom three twice and this really worries me. Her supporters MUST vote like crazy this week, or she could be in real trouble. Paris Bennett has earned her spot in the top three, and it would be a travesty if she were to be denied.

Taylor Hicks
What luck, Taylor is last in the alphabet! And no, I didn’t arrange them this way on purpose! If you’ve been reading this column all along, you already know that Taylor is my favorite. I can’t help it. I love everything about this guy and chose him to be my “one true Idol” for season 5 the minute I saw his initial audition. He joins an elite group that includes George Huff, Kimberley Locke, Kelly Clarkson, and, of course, Bo Bice.

Someone emailed me a couple of weeks ago chiding me for “always picking a loser.” This person noted that my predictions are never right and suggested that I find a new career! I laughed and realized that it doesn’t really matter to me whether my favorite wins or not; the fun is in the investment. I love my little collection of Idols and am proud of each one of them for what they have achieved post-Idol. No matter where Taylor finishes, I am going to be eagerly awaiting his first CD and look forward to seeing him live, and hopefully meeting him.

That being said, I think that I might just have picked a winner this time around. As unlikely as this may have seemed at the start, Taylor is coming on strong and has an enormous fan base. The fact that Saturday Night Live chose him to parody indicates that he has already been noticed outside of the world of Idol. Taylor’s not the best male vocalist of the lot (I will give that to Elliott) but no one can entertain like Taylor can. He makes me smile and giggle, and I get all fangirly when he performs! It’s silly but true.

Taylor Hicks has had some missteps along the road – “Country Roads” was pretty lame. But when he’s on, he is burning up hot, and if he can maintain this momentum, he will make the finals. The Soul Patrol will accept nothing less, and if he makes it, I think he just might win it. I know I’ll be voting!

I have a couple of concerns, though. Taylor is very easy to read, and I am sure that some of the backstage BS is really getting to him. He was definitely not happy about being put in the middle the other night (isn’t it strange that Bo and George were both put in the same spot in their seasons?), and Simon’s “are you drunk?” comment seriously pissed him off. He needs to play the game and let all this just roll off him.

To win it, Taylor will have to generate excitement each and every time he takes the stage. He needs an “In a Dream” moment to ensure his place in the top two. So far, we’ve haven’t had one of those moments this season, and I want Taylor to be the one who brings it. If he does that, I think he will indeed become the next American Idol.

I can’t close this out without mentioning Ace. I wasn’t surprised by his elimination but I was a bit sad to see him go. I wasn’t a big fan of his singing, but I really like this guy. He seems to be a very sensitive, emotional young man, and took this all very seriously. I think his numerous trips to the bottom three really did a number on him, and certainly affected his self-confidence. I wish him well in the future and won’t be a bit surprised to see handsome face in the movies some day. With looks like that, well, how can he fail!

I’m exhausted! I didn’t realize I had that much to say, and after writing this, realize that this really is the best top six we’ve ever had. I keep juggling them around in my mind, trying to figure out the most likely top three. There are so many variations at work here that I am still not sure. Maybe it will all become clear to me this week, but you know what? I hope it doesn’t. I kind of like the uncertainty!

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